Virginia elections
Six months after I first wrote about the Virginia governor's race, six days before the election, and I still haven't quite figured out who I'm voting for. I've been asking everyone I know who is politically active and lives in Virginia who they support, and I've been finding people who support all three of the gubernatorial candidates, and people who are still undecided.
I've been getting tons of mail from all the candidates. McAulliffe had a mailer last week where the positions of each of the candidates were described and then you had to scratch off the silver boxes to see who went with each set of positions. It was very clever, but sort of acknowledged that lots of people have a gut reaction against McAuliffe even if they agree with his positions. The Post endorsement of Deeds clearly gave him a real boost, and I know some real progressives who are supporting him in spite of his not-so-progressive positions on abortion and gay rights because they think he's got the best chance of winning. Moran has fewer negatives than either of the other candidates for me, but hasn't made a positive case that ties down my vote.
I'm also still undecided on the Lt. Governor's race. Singer seems to be somewhat more progressive, and to bring some real grassroots energy. But Wagner's been endorsed by lots of people I respect. And I do care about having women in elected office.
I do know that I'll be voting for Kaye Kory for House of Delegates.
June 4th, 2009 at 6:49 am
If I were a Reep, I would cross over and vote for McA, in the idea that he would be the easiest for McD to beat. Why do I think so? I have a lot of friends who have been VA Dems forever, who have worked very hard to make the Dem party credible in what seemed for years a hopelessly Reep state. And they are feeling outrage at the idea of being shoved aside by this parvenu – ‘step aside, Son, this is a Man’s job’ – it’s not winning. Not that they won’t vote for McA if he’s the nominee, but they are not going to contribute the second $250, nor hold a house party. The state is pretty evenly balanced, at this point, and to win a Dem needs huge enthusiasm from the grass root Dems. McA is an astroturf candidate, it won’t work, I think.
Between Deeds and Moran, I am picking Deeds, both because I am a fairly conservative Dem, and because I think Moran’s contributions from people with needs from his brother will be used against him very effectively by McD.
June 4th, 2009 at 10:59 am
We’re endorsing Brian Moran and Jody Wagner. I spoke with Jody for about two hours on Saturday and she really knows what she’s talking about in terms of education (she’s for universal pre-k), transportation, energy, and other issues.
I really like Brian’s record (tho he’s made some largish blunders, I will admit). I’ve spent less time getting a data dump from him, but think that he will do the best job of the three.
That said, I do like all three of the governor candidates this year.
June 4th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
I keep saying to people, “Do I have to choose one of these boobs?” Maybe that’s unfair but I am just unimpressed on different levels with all of them. The Post editorial laid out a good case for Creigh Deeds, though, and I’m leaning in that direction.
June 4th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
I’m very much an “Anybody But McAuliffe” person. So if Deeds has a better chance of beating McAuliffe than Moran, I’ll go with Deeds, even though Moran is better on the issues.
If the Governor’s race is the best of a bad lot, the LtGov is between two good candidates. I think I’m going to go with Wagner, but won’t be unhappy if Singer wins.
June 4th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
After going back and forth for a while now, I think I’ve finally settled on Deeds. And after reading Liz’s posts (and her comment above), I think we’re going Wagner, too.
June 4th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
Creigh Deeds is the only candidate who is REALLY from Virginia, and he is the only candidate that is actually running for the office of Governor for the right reasons. He is the most honest, straightforward, and — frankly — respectful of the honor of the office in the field of candidates. I have been involved in politics for over 30 years, and I can honestly say I can count on one hand the number of times I have been around such a sincere candidate.
June 5th, 2009 at 6:12 am
kamc – as a NOVA person originally from Calif, I’m kind of a hard sell on the idea that Brian Moran is not adequately VA – he’s been here for some years, has chosen to make his life here, has run for office successfully here before. As a nation, we decided some time ago that grandfather laws were not okay! And Moran has been part of the gradual painstaking effort, with the rest of the VA Dem party, to find a path for VA away from the knuckle-dragging right wing of Bob Marshall and the rest. He is by no means an astroturf candidate, as McA is.
I’m voting for Deeds partly for positive reasons about him – that he is an attractive candidate with positions I generally like, and likely to be successful statewide – and partly because of my expectation that Moran will do less well statewide in the general because of his brother and because of a general tired-of-NOVA feeling down state.
June 5th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Thanks APL! Happy to help on the Lt. Gov front.
Re: Moran, Deeds, McAuliffe…I like them all, but Moran matches my own position on more issues than the other two. Less importantly, his 2 kids have been really nice to MM and very inclusive of him when we’re all at events together.
June 9th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
Not even close, in the end.
June 9th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
It looks like a huge share of the undecided broke for Deeds, especially in Northern Virginia. I do think the Post endorsement made a big difference in getting people to take another look at him.
Right now (9.29 pm), the State Board of Elections website is showing Kory leading Hull by 33 votes, with one precinct yet to report. Can’t tell from the state site which precinct is missing — and I don’t know the district well enough to know which precincts would go which way.
June 9th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Ok, the Fairfax county board of elections is showing all precincts in, with Kory winning by 66 votes.
June 10th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Pleased with the outcome.
November 5th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
So it’s a rout. Blow out. I think the change is less than it appears – the Obama election/electorate resulted in part from a HUGE effort in the Dem jurisdictions in the north part of the state to turn out absentee voters. There are criteria which absentee voters are supposed to meet (absence from County, illness, etc.) and which have within living memory been enforced – or at least you had to lie about meeting them before the lady at the courthouse would give you a ballot. In the Obama 08 election, it was Katy bar the door, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. We were all told how dreadful the lines would be election day, were nearly dragooned out of the subway to vote early. Obama’s margin for the state was I think around 150000 and that was a whole lot like the number of absentee ballots cast in the NoVa burbs. It was a huge effort with a number of folks full time running poll stations in the runup to the election, and the Reep leaning jurisdictions in south state had nothing like it, nor had they relaxed standards from what the law called for. There was nothing like that this time from FFX-ARL in facilitating votes, nor would it have worked, really, since all of us voters had no realistic fear of long lines on voting day!
This is probably not replicable, and particularly now with the Reeps in charge they will make sure that there is a uniform standard for absentee voting across the state.
What I’m saying is, that the recent change in the electorate is probably from a one-time thing to something more like the base state, here in VA.