What does society look like in 2030?
I’ve just been reading a paper that sketches out four possible scenarios for “vulnerability” in 2030. It was written by something called the Institute for Alternative Futures for the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and lays out a most likely scenario, a gloom and doom option, and two possible brighter futures (one of which we get to by having a catastrophe that allows for non-incremental improvements).
I’m somewhat chagrined that I think their baseline scenario is overly optimistic, especially with regard to education. The gloom and doom scenario requires everything to go wrong — a double-dip recession, peak oil, global climate disruption. I think the odds of all of these happening in the next 20 years is very low — but it seems quite possible that one — or something not even on our list — could happen.
If you have the time to take a look at the report, I’d love some other reactions. (There’s also a formal way to comment to the folks who wrote it.)